Too close to call says Boswell

Believers of arbitrage and profit at all costs get another chance to lock in a guaranteed win on the Conference national Play-offs following Hereford's marginal win over Morecambe in the second semi-final writes Gary Boswell.

If you've followed my advice so far and have Hereford as a break even and Halifax as a plus 5.35, 3 points on Hereford at totalbet.com's 4/6 will guarantee you a couple of points profit either way.

I was reluctant to turn Hereford into any more than a break even on Thursday because I believed in the Morecambe-Halifax final as the most likely outcome but now that Hereford are there, there is a need to review their chance in the context of Saturday's one-off final game at the Walker stadium.

Bookmakers are working on the 'Hereford are favourites' theory courtesy of the final league table positions and Hereford's superior defensive record this season which is often the factor to follow in play-offs.

There can be no doubting the value of Hereford star centre-back Tamika Mkandawire who even popped up on the scoresheet against Morecambe and was a well deserved 9 out of ten scoring man of the match. Sheer class at this level and sure to negate the value that hardworking Ryan Sugden brings to the Shaymen.

Halifax's class is contained, however, in the midfield boots of Lewis Killeen and when you look at the two play-off semi-finals - both of which were very keenly contested and could really have gone either way - the one seriously impressive section of play was Halifax's first half first leg demolition of Grays.

Killeen was instrumental in tearing through an admittedly inferior defence than Hereford will put up but it was impressive all the same and to me it represented just how much of a seriously good bet we got at 4/1 on the original outrights.

I don't regret the hedge on Hereford whilst they were 11/8 but I'm against them now as 4/6 favourites in a game that is very tight but in my book just about comes down in Halifax's favour. They are a known dour and tough mental outfit - a trait engendered by manager Chris Wilder - whilst Hereford are the more flair based attacking team with Williams and Ipoua particularly on fire at the moment.

The deciding factor for me though is Hereford's occasional frailty in defence - Mkandawire excepted - and the suggestion that in the heat of battle they have less mental toughness than the Shaymen.

That is enough for me to stick with the original leaning to the Shaymen and to keep the Bulls as a mere break even.

The final recommendation of the season is thus - no bet.

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